The Iran war may be on pause but the political fallout is not

A fragile ceasefire between Iran, the U.S., and Israel may have paused the fighting in the Middle East. But the political consequences for President Trump and congressional Republicans are far from over.  Indeed, Republicans now face an even tougher environment heading into the midterms than the already challenging one they were facing before the war began. Polling on the war, which we’ve previously described, shows a nation that is divided but has grown steadily more negative as the conflict has dragged on. A recent poll from Cygnal found that 47 percent of likely voters support military action against Iran whereas 48 percent do not — a 7-point net increase in opposition from Cygnal’s March poll. And a separate Economist-YouGov poll shows more broadly that 34 percent of registered voters approved the war, with 53 percent disapproving. Although Americans will sometimes tolerate the costs of military action when they believe the mission is necessary, clear and likely to succeed, they are far less willing to do so when they do not understand the objective — which is the administration’s central political problem. Trump and his team never effectively explained why the U.S. went to war, what success would look like, or how long the country should expect economic consequences. The administration has struggled in its messaging consistently leaving the public with mixed messages and shifting rationales, and the polling bears this out. The Economist-YouGov poll shows that 57 per…