Whole Hog Politics: What kind of polling miss can Republicans expect?

[Watch Whole Hog Politics Live: Hill Insider members can join us live today at 9 a.m. ET as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon go deep on this week’s political news. Members can join the discussion and pose their questions to Bill and Chris. Tune in!] The House is looking enough like a done deal for Democrats that even the relentlessly positive Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is musing publicly about what comes next for him if Republicans get the boot in November.   So, how’s it going for Republicans’ bid to keep the Senate? Oil prices rose Thursday on reports that the Pentagon was preparing for an imminent, large-scale attack on Iran. President Trump responded on social media saying, “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” This is an odd thing to say, even by the president’s standards. He knows that the high price of energy and its knock-on effects in other products are part of what is killing his party’s already dim midterm chances. Perhaps the calculation is that if he pledges not to attack, he could prevent the spike in futures prices that would be hitting consumers in the next few weeks. But for a president of the United States to explicitly, publicly tie military decisions to an election is a new one, as far as I know. Whatever it was, it didn’t seem to work. After a brief pause in the rally, prices started climbing again. Do traders not believe the president? Do they assume tha…